Odds, NFL playoffs game picks

Publish date: 2024-08-18
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When the Jaguars and Chargers met in Week 3, it was supposed to be a rout in Los Angeles’ favor. Instead, Jacksonville earned its biggest blowout win of the season to tease what would eventually be the team’s first division title run in five years.

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Even so, the Chargers find themselves favored once again in this postseason rematch, which doubles as the first-ever playoff starts for Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Can the Bolts avenge that early-season loss, or will the Jaguars repeat that performance on their home turf?

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s NFL playoff contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.

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Jaguars vs. Chargers pick

Jaguars vs. Chargers prediction and analysis

If you took the names off the jerseys and judged these two teams strictly on the merits of the last 18 weeks, there isn’t a whole lot separating the Chargers and Jaguars ahead of their upcoming wild-card clash. And you might even favor Saturday’s hosts.

See for yourself: Team A ranks 13th in DVOA and seventh in point differential (+54) with an offense that slots into the top 10 by just about any metric – a key factor in this team’s five-game win streak to close the year. Team B sat at 18th in DVOA and 11th in point differential (+7), and it struggled to find any rhythm during the regular season behind league-average units on both sides of the ball.

For those scoring at home, it should be fairly obvious which team is which. What’s less obvious is why the market remains infatuated with Los Angeles, which not only profiles as the worse team in this matchup but will be the visiting team on Saturday night – which, to be fair, won’t seem much different from the norm for the Bolts.

It doesn’t help that this team is limping into this weekend after a disastrous season finale, when coach Brandon Staley watched multiple starters leave with injury in a game with absolutely no stakes. The result is an injury report that should make Chargers fans livid: Mike Williams (back), Joey Bosa (groin) and Kenneth Murray (neck) were all limited in practice this week after suffering late-season injuries, while regular starters J.C. Jackson (kneecap) and Rashawn Slater (biceps) remain out for Saturday’s affair.

That’s a ton of firepower that will either be missing or limited on short rest, especially against a team that thoroughly dominated Los Angeles in that 38-10 shocker in Week 3. The Jaguars lost five straight games after that, all by one possession, but they’ve ripped off five straight wins with three coming by double digits heading into this weekend.

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I’m simply running out of reasons to doubt Jacksonville, which has looked like the better team on paper and with the eye test. If there’s a talent gap here – and, clearly, the betting market thinks there is – it’s mitigated by the myriad injuries on Los Angeles’ side. Both quarterbacks will also be making their playoff debut, and while Herbert gets the nod from most talent evaluators, Lawrence has been just as prolific (if not better) over the back half of the season with a 15-2 TD-INT ratio over his last nine starts.

Also, beware the postseason home underdog, which is 5-1 against the spread with three outright wins since 2015. Early money has favored the Jaguars here, and I’d be willing to bet them all the way to pick ‘em in a game that they’re well-positioned to win.

Jaguars vs. Chargers odds (via BetMGM)

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